Major Global IBs’ Average Forecast for S. Korea’s Growth Reaches 3%

Economy Major Global IBs’ Average Forecast for S. Korea’s Growth Reaches 3% Written: 2026-07-07 14:01:30 / Updated: 2026-07-07 14:07:59 Share Print Photo : YONHAP News Major global investment banks’ average forecast for South Korea’s economic growth this year has reached three percent for the first time due to strong semiconductor exports fueled by the artificial intelligence boom. Data released Wednesday by the Korea Center for International Finance showed growth forecasts for South Korea’s real gross domestic product(GDP) in 2026 by eight major investment banks averaged three percent at the end of June, up zero-point-two percentage point from a month earlier.

The average forecast stood at two percent at the end of last year, rising to two-point-one percent in January, two-point-four percent in April, and two-point-eight percent in May. There were also forecasts for growth in the mid-to-upper three percent range, according to the compiled data. JP Morgan predicted three-point-seven percent growth for the South Korean economy in June, up zero-point-seven percentage point from the month prior, marking the largest one-month adjustment.

Citibank also raised its forecast from three percent to three-point-five percent over the cited period, while Barclays and Goldman Sachs projected two-point-seven percent growth, and HSBC two-point-eight percent growth. Bank of America, Nomura and UBS all maintained their previous month’s outlook at three-point-one percent, two-point-four percent and two-point-eight percent, respectively. Forecasts for South Korea’s growth this year continue to rise in tandem with the country’s booming semiconductor industry, with monthly exports having topped a record 102 billion U.

S. dollars for the first time ever in June. Amid improved outlooks, the Bank of Korea is expected to raise its 2026 growth forecast in its revised economic outlook in August, up from the current 2.

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