Who will sit atop the next world order?

BERLIN—The era in which global order rested on a U.S. monopoly over military and economic power and values has finally come to an end, taking Europe’s long period of stability with it.

The world has become significantly more turbulent and uncertain, and the near future will bring even more instability. In the past, the contours of the world order were clearly reflected in the G7/G8 format, which brought together the leading industrialized countries. But now there are competing formats such as the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union, and the BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and a half-dozen other members, plus ten partner countries)—all consisting predominantly of emerging economies.

American hegemony has given way to a new formulation based on rivalry and competition among several major powers, where there is no longer a fixed, codified set of rules. Instead, there is only economic, technological, and military power, which implies a greater risk of conflict and even war between nuclear heavyweights. This new order