Pump pain, Wall Street gain: Iran war sends U.S. oil profits, stocks soaring as the big winners
The higher oil price environment may extend well into 2028 as the world refills its depleted energy reserves, analysts warned.
Consumer frustration may be running high as drivers pay well above $4 a gallon at the pump, but the big winners from the Iran war are U.S. oil producers and refiners whose profits and share prices have soared.
The stock values of leading U.S. oil players have jumped 20%-70% this year as crude prices and demand spiked—many near all-time highs—and analysts think the rally may not be fleeting.
Beyond the war-driven boom, executives and analysts point to rising global oil demand to replenish or build up strategic reserves as well as greater reliance on Western Hemisphere supplies amid growing geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and other hot spots. Those trends could keep prices higher than expected into 2027 and even 2028, they said. “I do think you’ll see this country and this hemisphere become a more important part of the global energy system,” Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said June 12 in Houston at a Bloomberg energy event.
“The U.S. and the Americas are very well set up with strong energy resources and a lot of access to blue-water ports,” he added, noting they avoid risky chokepoints such as the now-infamous Strait of Hormuz.
Chevron and Exxon Mobil shares are both up about 22% this year. And if not for some of their production volumes in the Middle East remaining disrupted, those gains would likely be higher. Both storied Big Oil giants hit all-time stock market highs in late March before the initial ceasefire agreement with Iran knocked some of the war premium out of oil.
Exxon’s market cap now sits well above $600 billion, while Chevron tops $370 billion. U.S.
shale producers are riding the wave even more. Shares of Ovintiv, Chord Energy, and APA Corp. have all climbed close to 50% year to date.
SM Energy, which recently grew by acquiring Civitas, has surged nearly 70% since Jan. 1. Refiners that churn out gasoline and jet fuel, such as Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy, are up about 60% amid high profit margins.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporte
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