Morgan Stanley says SpaceX at $100 would give its AI business no value

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) says SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is getting close to a price where investors would be giving its artificial intelligence unit no value at present. The bank’s entire case is based on the possibility that the price falls to $100 per share, which is the number that most traders consider after the selling opportunity for insiders opens up. According to analyst Adam Jonas, at this price, the AI segment of the firm will not be valued at all.

The stock has already had a rough start. SpaceX raised a record $86 billion when it went public in mid-June at $135 a share. There was a rush among the buyers initially, leading to an increase in the price by almost 50 percent over three sessions to over $225.

This euphoria soon fizzled out. The stock has since fallen below the issue price and is now trading at $110.85, 18 percent lower than the issue price.

Morgan Stanley ties most of its SpaceX target to artificial intelligence Jonas kept a $300 price target on SpaceX, and more than half of that figure comes from the AI business. He wrote on Friday, “We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares.” His note said many investors are bracing for a drop when the lockup ends next month.

The company plans to hold its first earnings call on August 4. Two days later, on August 6, insiders will be allowed to sell up to 911.5 million shares.

That would roughly double the number of shares available for trading and could add more pressure if early holders decide to cash out. Jonas said the market is cutting the value of Grok and Cursor. He wrote, “Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor.”

He added, “Many ascribe zero or even negative value for AI given the high capex requirements relative to Space & Connectivity, largely uncertain economics, and the high degree of management time devoted to the business.” That concern is not limit