July May Be the Lifeline XRP Holders Waited For, Price History Suggests
XRP holds near the critical $1 mark after a 22% June plunge, but historical Q3 data signals a potential July recovery toward $1.40.
July May Be the Lifeline XRP Holders Waited For, Price History Suggests News By Gamza Khanzadaev Sat, 27/06/2026 - 4:00 XRP holds near the critical $1 mark after a 22% June plunge, but historical Q3 data signals a potential July recovery toward $1.40. Advertisement Cover image via depositphotos.
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Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies.
Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available. XRP is ending June near the psychological $1 mark, closing a disastrous first half of the year.
After falling 27.1% in the first quarter, the drawdown in the second quarter stands at 22.4%.
The current month alone has taken 22.2% from the asset's value. Advertisement Trading is now taking place in the $1.
03–$1.04 range, where the chart has moved close to a critical support level. At the same time, the third quarter officially begins on July 1.
For XRP, this transition has historically meant a shift in the global trend.Year-to-year XRP price dynamics on a daily price chart with RSI attached, Source: TradingViewJune is statistically the worst month of the year for XRP, according to data by CryptoRank, with an average return of -6.41%, and the current plunge fully fits into this tendency.
However, with the move into July, historical indicators shift in favor of buyers: HOT Stories Will Bitcoin (BTC) Return to $60,000? XRP's Risks of Losing $1, Shiba Inu's (SHIB) Bearish Pressure Is Weakening: Crypto Market Review OpenAI's 'Sol, Terra, Luna' Models Excite Crypto Community July statistics: The average monthly return is +10.2%, while the median return is +10.
8%. A positive July close was recorded in 2023 and 2025.Quarterly trend: The median Q3 return stands at +27.
1%, the best result among all four quarters of the year, while the previous three years saw this period close exclusively in the green.Two consecutive losing quarters in XRP's history have usually led to complete seller exhaustion. The RSI technical indicator on the daily chart has already formed a bullish divergence, pointing to weakness among bears.
Advertisement In this environment, a return to average values could trigger a relief rebound of 23–25%, targeting the $1.39–$1.40 area for XRP.
How California compliance could impact XRP priceThe main trigger at the start of the month is the July 1 deadline, by which Ripple must confirm compliance with California's Digital Financial Assets Law requirements for the legal operation of custodial services and the RLUSD stablecoin. Successful compliance would coincide with the moment when short-term sellers have fully exhausted their momentum and buyers have started defending liquidity at the $1 level. You Might Also Like Fri, 06/26/2026 - 15:05 XRP Flashes Warning of Adding Zero as New Support Forms ByCaroline Amosun Advertisement The current compression of the price range sets a clear condition for the market: either accumulated buying volume triggers an impulsive breakout from the oversold zone, or a break below psychological support opens the door to a long-term decline below $1 for XRP.
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