Grayscale research head says Strategy could restore market confidence by selling $3B in BTC

Grayscale research head says Strategy could restore market confidence by selling $3B in BTC Zach Pandl argues that Strategy's $1.5 billion annual dividend burden may force the company to liquidate a portion of its massive Bitcoin treasury, and that might actually be a good thing for the market. Share Add us on Google by Editorial Team Jun.

28, 2026 Here’s a sentence you don’t hear every day: selling billions in Bitcoin might actually calm people down. Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, laid out the case in a June 4 research note. Strategy, the Michael Saylor-led company formerly known as MicroStrategy, is sitting on a growing cash-flow problem.

Its annual preferred-stock dividend obligations run about $1.5 billion. Its software business brings in roughly $477 million.

That’s a billion-dollar gap, and the math only works if Bitcoin cooperates. The dividend trap Strategy has built its entire corporate identity around hoarding Bitcoin. The company holds over 840,000 BTC, making it by far the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury on the planet.

For years, the playbook was simple: issue equity, issue convertible notes, buy more Bitcoin, repeat. But the preferred stock layer changes the equation. Strategy’s preferred shares, trading under the ticker STRC, were designed to pay dividends funded by the company’s operations and, if necessary, its Bitcoin holdings.

The problem is that STRC has been trading below its anticipated $100 target price. That shortfall increases the company’s future financial obligations, creating a feedback loop that puts more pressure on the treasury. In late May, Strategy sold 32 BTC, its first Bitcoin sale since 2022.

The proceeds went directly toward funding preferred dividends. It was a tiny amount relative to the company’s holdings, roughly equivalent to finding change in the couch cushions of an 840,000 BTC sofa. But the signal it sent rattled markets.

Advertisement Pandl’s argument is counterintuitive but worth sitting with. If Strategy were to sell a more meaningful chunk, say $3 billion worth of BTC, it could actually stabilize sentiment. The logic: investors are currently pricing in uncertainty about whether and when Strategy will need to dump Bitcoin.

A controlled, transparent sale would remove that overhang. Why the market cares Bitcoin was trading around $60,000 during the period Pandl published his analysis. The broader crypto market had already been absorbing heavy selling pressure, with spot Bitcoin ETF outflows reaching around $3 billion in the preceding weeks.

Those outflows were unrelated to Grayscale’s own activities, but they set a nervous backdrop. Strategy’s 32 BTC sale was tiny. But it broke a psychological seal.

Since 2022, the company had been a one-way buyer. Any reversal of that posture, no matter how small, forces the market to recalibrate expectations about the largest single holder of BTC. Pandl specifically flagged weakness in STRC as a canary in the coal mine.

If preferred equity continues trading below par, Strategy faces the prospect of issuing more shares or selling more Bitcoin to cover the rising cost of its capital structure. What this means for investors The immediate question is scale. Selling 32 BTC is a rounding error.

Selling $3 billion worth would represent a meaningful but manageable portion of Strategy’s holdings, roughly 5-6% of the treasury at current prices. It would also represent one of the largest single corporate Bitcoin liquidation events in history. Pandl’s framing suggests this wouldn’t be a fire sale.

It would be strategic deleveraging, a way for the company to demonstrate it can service its obligations without relying entirely on Bitcoin’s price going up forever. For Bitcoin itself, a $3 billion sale would be significant but not catastrophic. Daily Bitcoin trading volume across major exchanges regularly exceeds $20 billion.

A structured, pre-announced sale spread over weeks would be absorbed far more easily than a panic dump. Investors should watch two indicators closely. First, the price of STRC relative to its $100 par value.

Persistent trading below par signals growing financial strain. Second, Strategy’s quarterly filings for any changes in its Bitcoin disposition policy. The 32 BTC sale in May was disclosed quickly, and any acceleration of that trend would be the clearest signal that the billion-dollar dividend gap is becoming untenable.

One thing worth noting: Grayscale itself remains a net buyer of Bitcoin, and Pandl’s analysis was directed at Strategy’s balance sheet, not Grayscale’s own positioning. Some early reports conflated the two, but there’s no indication Grayscale is planning or recommending sales from its own holdings. Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team.

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