Gold hovers around $4,000, silver holds below $60 — has the shimmer worn off the precious metal rally?

Key PointsSpot gold held below the $4,000 mark on Thursday, while spot silver traded below the $60 level.Gold is down almost 8% so far this year, while silver has shed close to 20%.Market watchers expect pressure on the metals is likely to continue.

In this articleXAG=@GC.1@SI.1Follow your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNTOne kilogram and a five hundred gram gold bars next to one kilogram silver bars at The Vaults Group gold dealers arranged in Barcelona, Spain, on Monday, April 28, 2025.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesGold and silver prices are oscillating around key thresholds as hawkish central banks and inflation fears weigh on the metals — and market watchers see little chance of a meaningful rebound in the near term. Spot gold was flat at around 5:50 a.m.

ET on Thursday, trading at $3,990.17 an ounce after falling below the $4,000 mark in the previous session. The precious yellow metal briefly broke back above $4,000 on Thursday, before retreating again later in the morning.

Front-month U.S. gold futures were marginally lower, settling at $4,006.

60. Year-to-date, gold is now down by around 7.5%.

Stock Chart IconStock chart iconSpot goldSilver prices are also coming under pressure. Spot silver was 0.1% higher at $57.

49 an ounce on Thursday morning, rebounding from a loss seen earlier in the day. Silver futures for July delivery were down by 1.2% at $57.

41. Spot silver has lost almost 20% of its value since the beginning of the year. Stock Chart IconStock chart iconSpot silverPrecious metals rally stalls Both gold and silver enjoyed record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135% respectively over the course of the year.

While the rally continued into early 2026, trade soon turned volatile. Silver futures suffered their biggest single-day blow since the 1980s at the end of January and gold's safe haven status has been called into question after the outbreak of the U.S.

-Iran war in February. In a note on Wednesday, strategists at Macquarie said all eyes were now on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks — particularly the Federal Reserve — will tighten policy to keep prices under control. "The apparent end to the conflict in the Middle East, combined with a more hawkish Fed, has caused prices to retreat as gold's safe haven appeal fades together with the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger USD, with a Fed rate hike in Q4 now fully priced in," they said.

Markets are currently pricing in a Fed rate hike by September, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates this month in response to the Iran war energy shock. Macquarie's said that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting had taken a "hawkish tone" and that, under his leadership, the central bank has "potential to derail or support prices" in the gold market.

"Post the fallout from the Middle East, which we expect to weigh on global growth into Q3, the eventual upturn in global growth and monetary policy easing cycle should see gold prices trend lower as more investor money transitions out of precious metals," they said. "Investors have been taking profit and pivoting towards equities … This creates space for investors to re-enter the precious space, thereby pushing prices back up, but it would likely require a major macro event to reignite interest."

Inflation weighs on pricesMacquarie is forecasting an average gold spot price of $4,641 per ounce for 2026, a 35% year-on-year gain, but it expects prices to fall 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027 and decline every year until 2030. It trimmed its year-end forecast for spot gold to $4,300 on Wednesday from a previous outlook of $4,400.

Profit taking put pressure on silver prices last month, Macquarie said, adding that "price action is back to being macro driven" amid rising expectations of a Fed rate hike. "As with gold, we expect prices to remain range bound for the remainder of this year before gradually trending lower in 2027, with tensions caused by inflation and the probability of a Fed hike to limit further upside," they said. "The higher inflation and bond yields move, the greater the downwards pressure.

For silver in particular, bullish investor sentiment fueled by tighter supply, low inventories and strong demand has caused prices to outperform gold, making it more vulnerable to a retracement. And historically silver retraces quickly."Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70 per ounce in the final quarter of this year, before falling to $65 an ounce by the end of 2027.

Guy Adami, co-founder or RiskReversal Media and a "Fast Money" trader, told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime" on Wednesday that gold is "still in play" despite facing a series of headwinds. "There was this talk [of] central banks potentially selling [gold] at the beginning of the war, I have no validation or verification of that, but that was out there, and in a world where Micron adds $130 billion of market cap in the after hours, people are