Fox News Power Rankings: Democrats lead in the House, but redistricting keeps the GOP in the game

The president’s party has lost an average of 25 U.S. House seats in Trump-era midterm elections.

Given that Democrats only have an edge on the generic ballot and in party affiliation, so far, they look like they’re on track for an "average" night.Republican redistricting wins change that calculation. The GOP is likely to bank about a dozen seats from new district boundaries drawn by Republican-controlled state legislatures, up to nine of those in Florida and Texas alone.

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom scored his party an extra three to five seats after voters approved his gerrymandering referendum, but overall, the GOP won this battle in what now looks like a redistricting "forever war."WHERE TRUMP, GOP VS DEMOCRATS REDISTRICTING BATTLE HEADS NEXT IN WAKE OF KEY COURT RULINGSTogether, this adds up to a small Democratic lead in the House.

They start with 211 races in their categories, or seven short of the 218 they need for a majority. If they win more than a handful of toss-up races, they will have enough to flip the chamber.There is enough room for the Republicans to maintain control on a good night for the party.

Since toss-up races tend to be won and lost together, they could even improve on the slim majority they currently enjoy.Redistricting is at the heart of many key races this year, but the top of the ticket in each state, candidate quality and ground game are still important themes. Here are five districts to watch.

The 17th district, up in the Hudson Valley, is the quintessential median district: a place that, on any given day, could swing in either direction.Voters elected Republican Mike Lawler here by 6 points in 2024, but also voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.3 points, making it one of the rare ‘crossover’ districts of that election, and arguably the top target for Democrats in a more favorable political environment.

The party got moderate and combat veteran Cait Conley through the primary, despite competition from a progressive challenger