China exports in June jump at fastest pace since 2021 as AI boom, tariff rush lift trade

NANJING, CHINA - JULY 09: Aerial view of new energy vehicles waiting for shipment at Longtan Port Area of Nanjing Port on July 9, 2026 in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province of China. Yang Suping | Visual China Group | Getty ImagesChina's trade growth accelerated far more than expected in June, as booming global demand for AI hardware and a rush by U.S.

retailers to beat anticipated tariff hikes turbocharged shipments. Overall exports rose 27% from a year earlier in U.S.

dollar value terms, the strongest since October 2021, customs data showed Tuesday, quickening from the 19.4% gain in May and sharply beat economists' estimates for a 18.2% growth.

Imports grew 36% in June, the largest jump since June 2021, gaining pace from the 27.4% growth in May and beating economists' forecast for a 24% growth. The trade surplus stood at $125.

6 billion in June. Factory activity accelerated in June as U.S.

-bound orders recorded sharp year-on-year gains, a survey by China Beige Book showed last month, pushing up freight rates. Manufacturers are bracing for additional tariffs from U.S.

President Donald Trump's Section 301 probes as the 10% broad-based duty is set to expire on July 24. Beijing has grappled with a deepening supply-demand imbalance, as strong industrial output and exports tied to the global AI investment boom continue to power headline growth, even as consumption and private investment weakens amid a prolonged property downturn and volatile global oil prices. The global AI investment boom has also helped to cushion the fallout from the Middle East conflict and a global oil shock.

China is expected to release its gross domestic product growth for the second quarter on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect growth to have slowed to 4.5% in the second quarter, after a solid 5% in the first quarter.

Industrial output and retail sales for June, also due Wednesday, are projected to expand 4.7% and shrink 0.1%, respectively.

Urban investment is estimated to decline 4.9% in the first half-year, deepening from 4.1% in the first five months, according to a Reuters poll.

Investors are now looking to an expected Politburo meeting in late July for clues on stimulus that could shape policy for the rest of the year, although analysts expect no meaningful stimulus unless growth slows more sharply, given resilient exports and Beijing's focus on curbing excess factory capacity to fight deflation.Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.